Course Strategy

Risk vs Reward

Weigh upside against the cost of a miss.

Why it matters

Most strokes lost by competent players are lost to decisions, not to technique. The arithmetic is simple and almost nobody does it: what you gain when the aggressive shot works, against what you lose when it does not, multiplied by how often each actually happens.

How to do it

Estimate honestly how often you hit the aggressive shot. Use your practice numbers, not your memory of the best one.
Work out what a miss costs — not a near miss, the typical miss. OB, a drop zone, a blocked lie.
Compare the two. If the aggressive line gains one stroke half the time and costs two a quarter of the time, it is losing money.
Treat OB and water as roughly a two-stroke swing, because that is usually what they are once the re-throw is counted.
Take the aggressive line when the miss is cheap, and only then. A safe miss is what makes aggression correct.

Common mistakes

Judging the decision by the best case.The best case happens occasionally. Decide on the average outcome, which is what your score is made of.

Overestimating your own success rate.Most players think they hit a given line far more often than they do. Count it in practice once and use that number.

Taking the aggressive line to make up for an earlier bad hole.The previous hole is over and the odds have not changed. Chasing is the single most expensive habit in the sport.

Being equally cautious on every hole.Where the miss is genuinely cheap, be aggressive. Blanket caution leaves strokes behind too.

Key points

Compare the birdie gain to the bogey risk.
Respect OB and water — they change the math.
Take the aggressive line only when the miss is safe.

The drill

Drill · Do the arithmetic — 1 round writing down the sum before each risky shot. On every hole where you are tempted, write two numbers before you throw: how often you make it, and what the miss costs. Then throw whichever the numbers favour. After eighteen holes you will have a page that argues with your instincts, and the page is usually right.

Watch: RISK VS. REWARD! The disc golf dilemma. — Bear Bite Disc